The Philadelphia Phillies have steadied their season after a rough start and have re-entered the playoff picture, but one major concern is emerging on the mound: Andrew Painter is struggling badly instead of stabilizing the rotation.
Once regarded as the organization’s top prospect entering 2025, Painter has endured a difficult rookie campaign. In 13 appearances (11 starts), he owns a 6.43 ERA while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings and striking out just 7.1 batters per nine innings.
His underlying metrics tell a similar story, with Baseball Savant ranking him in the fifth percentile in Pitching Run Value.
His fastball has been particularly ineffective, grading in the fifth percentile in Fastball Run Value, while his breaking ball sits in the 26th percentile and his offspeed pitch in the 30th.
Overall, his pitch profile has been among the weakest in the league this season.
Given his struggles, speculation has grown that the Phillies could seek rotation help at the trade deadline, potentially looking for a short-term replacement if Painter cannot turn things around.
One name being floated as a possible target is veteran right-hander Sonny Gray of the Boston Red Sox. Boston’s disappointing season has fueled trade speculation, and Gray could emerge as a rental option for contenders.
The 36-year-old has posted a strong 3.03 ERA in 12 starts this season and has adapted his pitch mix, relying more on his cutter while maintaining strong command despite declining velocity.
Analysts note that Gray’s contract structure—an $11 million salary this year with a mutual $30 million option for 2027—effectively makes him a rental, though acquiring him would still come at a cost given his performance and experience.
As one report suggested, a move for a veteran arm like Gray would signal how aggressively the Phillies intend to pursue not just a playoff berth, but a deep postseason run.
For now, the Phillies would prefer Painter to stabilize the rotation internally. The young right-hander has shown brief flashes of improvement, including a stretch of solid outings earlier in the season, but inconsistency has returned, highlighted by five home runs allowed over his last three starts.
Painter himself has pointed to command as the key issue, admitting that early walks and missed locations have put him in difficult situations. He believes the solution lies in being more aggressive in the strike zone and limiting free passes.
If he can rediscover control and consistency, the Phillies may avoid making a major trade. If not, the front office could be forced to act quickly to protect their postseason ambitions.
